Millions of retirees look for one number every October: how big the next Social Security raise will be. For 2027 it is due on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. This guide was written on October 12, before the announcement. It covers the date, the estimates, how the figure is worked out, and a calculator for your own benefit.
When is the 2027 COLA announced?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is scheduled to announce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 on October 14, 2026, at about 8:30 a.m. Eastern. That is the same morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September consumer price data, the last piece the formula needs. The higher amount starts with the January 2027 payment, and SSI recipients are expected to see theirs in late December 2026.
What will the 2027 COLA be? The estimates so far
The 2026 COLA was 2.8%. Forecasts for 2027 are higher. The most widely cited estimates sit between about 3.4% and 3.6%, with The Senior Citizens League at roughly 3.6%, and a few outlets pointing as high as 3.8%. Earlier in the year, forecasts were closer to 2.8% to 3.2%, which shows how far one month of price data can move the result. Treat every figure here as a forecast until SSA publishes the official percentage.
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Get a quote How Motex worksHow the COLA is calculated
SSA does not use the inflation figure you hear on the news. It uses the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The rule has three steps:
- Average the CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year.
- Compare that average with the third-quarter average from the last year a COLA took effect.
- The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth, is the COLA. If there is no increase, there is no COLA.
For the 2025 raise, SSA measured the third quarter of 2024 against a base average of 301.236 and found an increase of 2.5%, so the COLA was 2.5%.
What it means for your check
The COLA is a percentage of your current benefit. Using an average-sized benefit of about $2,071 a month as an example:
| COLA | Monthly increase | New monthly benefit |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | $70.41 | $2,141.41 |
| 3.5% | $72.49 | $2,143.49 |
| 3.6% | $74.56 | $2,145.56 |
| 3.8% | $78.70 | $2,149.70 |
Medicare Part B is usually deducted from the check before you receive it. The standard 2026 premium is $202.90, up from $185 in 2025, so a higher premium shrinks the net raise. The 2027 premium is set separately.
2027 COLA calculator
New monthly benefit: $2,143.49 (about $72.49 more a month)
Estimates only. Your real payment can differ after Medicare premiums and other deductions.